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World Bank raises China growth forecast to 5.6%
世行上調2023中國經濟增長預期至5.6%
The World Bank has predicted that China's economy will grow at 5.6 percent this year, up by 1.3 percentage points from its January forecast, while it has revised down projections for most economies, as it sees global growth on a precarious footing amid high interest rates.
世界銀行預測2023年中國經濟將增長5.6%，較1月預測上調1.3個百分點，同時下調了對大多數經濟體增長預期，該機構認為在利率上升的背景下全球增長受到影響。
This prospect for China is more optimistic than that outlined by the International Monetary Fund in April in its World Economic Outlook, which forecast the country's growth to stay at 5.2 percent this year, when the world is embarking on a rocky economic recovery road.
這一預期較國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）4月份發布的《世界經濟展望報告》對中國經濟增長的預測更樂觀，在世界經濟艱難復蘇的背景下，IMF預測2023年中國經濟增速為5.2%。
In its Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the World Bank said that economic activity in China bounced back in early 2023, spurred by the country's optimized COVID-19 response measures, which drove consumer spending, particularly on domestic services.
世界銀行在6日發布的報告稱，今年初，隨著中國優化疫情防控措施，消費需求得到釋放，尤其是國內服務業，推動了中國經濟恢復。
China has set a target of around 5 percent for its GDP growth this year. It posted a growth rate of 4.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, a significant improvement from the 2.9 percent in the last quarter of 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
中國今年設定了5%左右的GDP增長目標。國家統計局數據顯示，一季度GDP同比增長4.5%，較2022年第四季度2.9%的增速有明顯提高。
Global growth is projected to decelerate from 3.1 percent in 2022 to 2.1 percent in 2023, according to the World Bank report.
世行報告稱，預計全球增長將從2022年的3.1%放緩至2023年的2.1%。
This forecast is up by 0.4 percentage points compared with the global lender's January report, as activity in major advanced economies and some emerging markets and developing economies, or EMDEs, did not slow down as much as expected at the turn of the year.
這一預測較1月預測上調0.4個百分點，世行認為，主要發達經濟體和一些新興市場和發展中經濟體的活動并沒有像年初預期的那樣放緩。
"Notably, the rapid reopening of China's economy contributed materially to an upward revision to this year's growth forecast," it said.
報告稱：“值得注意的是，中國經濟的強勁復蘇是上調今年全球增長預期的主要原因?！?/p>
On the upside, a more vigorous consumption recovery could support growth for longer than expected in China, where inflation is expected to remain below target, allowing monetary policy to remain mildly accommodative, according to the report.
報告稱，中國更強勁的消費復蘇對經濟增長的支持時間可能長于預期，并且預計中國通脹仍將低于目標水平，從而使貨幣政策保持寬松。
The World Bank said the key downside risks for China's economy include continuing stress in the real estate sector, a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in global growth and trade, and the lingering possibility of disruptive COVID-19 waves.
世界銀行表示，中國經濟面臨的主要下行風險包括房地產行業的持續壓力、全球增長和貿易放緩幅度超出預期，以及破壞性 COVID-19 浪潮揮之不去的可能性。
In advanced economies, growth is set to contract from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 0.7 percent this year, and remain weak in 2024, the report said.
報告表示，發達經濟體的增長速度將從2022年的2.6%收縮至今年的0.7%，并在2024年保持疲軟。
The United States' economic growth is poised to decelerate to 0.8 percent in 2024 after growing 1.1 percent in 2023, mainly because of the lingering impact of the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year and a half, the World Bank said in a release.
世界銀行認為，美國經濟預計今年增長1.1%，明年放緩至0.8%。主要是因為過去一年半利率大幅上升的影響揮之不去。
As for the EMDEs, the World Bank noted that although most of them have seen only limited harm from the recent banking stress in advanced economies, they are now sailing in dangerous waters.
世界銀行指出，雖然近來發達經濟體的銀行業困境給大多數新興市場和發展中經濟體造成的危害較為有限，但形勢也具有一定危險性。
With increasingly restrictive global credit conditions, one out of every four EMDEs has lost access to international bond markets, and growth projections for these economies for 2023 are less than half of those made a year ago, making them highly vulnerable to additional shocks.
隨著全球信貸條件日趨收緊，新興市場和發展中經濟體當中有四分之一實際已無法通過國際債券市場融資。這些經濟體2023年的增長預期不到一年前預測水平的一半，這使它們極易受到額外沖擊的影響。
Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group's chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics, said that in 2023, trade will grow at less than a third of its pace in the years before the pandemic, and that in the EMDEs, debt pressures are growing due to higher interest rates.
世界銀行集團首席經濟學家兼發展經濟學高級副行長英德米特·吉爾表示，2023年的貿易增長速度將不及疫情到來之前的三分之一。在新興市場和發展中經濟體，利率上升正導致債務壓力增大。
來源：中國日報
編輯：董靜，李蕙帆（實習）
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