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Finance and economics
財經版塊
Forget the Fed
忘掉美聯儲
Investors are paying more attention than ever to the world’s safest assets.
投資者比以往更加關注世界上最安全的資產。
Regular and predictable.
有規律的和可預測的。
That has been the golden rule of Treasury issuance for 40 years.
40年來，這一直是美國國債發行的黃金法則。
America’s fiscal branch once funded itself with “tactical” bond sales.
美國的財政部門曾經通過“戰術性”債券出售來籌集資金。
Officials would survey market participants and issue debt in response.
官員們會對市場參與者進行調查，并據此發行債券。
But this process proved highly disruptive to financial activity.
但事實證明，這一過程會嚴重干擾金融活動。
So in 1982 they adopted a new approach: a regular schedule of issuance would be followed, communicated long in advance.
因此，在1982年，官員們采用了一種新方法：遵循有規律的發行時間表，提前很長時間就公布發行計劃。
Treasury officials now think that, by reducing overall borrowing costs, this strategy has saved taxpayers a fortune.
財政部官員現在認為，通過降低總體借貸成本，這一策略為納稅人節省了一大筆錢。
As a part of this regularly scheduled programme the Treasury has, for decades, released a “quarterly refunding announcement” in which it lays out its plans for the next three months.
作為這種定期計劃的一部分，幾十年來，財政部都會發布“季度再融資公告”，列出未來3個月的計劃。
This is not generally a hotly anticipated event, being precisely the kind of wonkish release that seldom attracts wider interest.
這通常不是那種人們會熱切期盼的事件，而恰恰是那種很少引起廣泛興趣的、關于政策細節的乏味公告。
But on November 1st the announcement was pretty much all that Wall Street cared about.
但在11月1日，華爾街最關心的就是這份公告。
Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets, an investment bank, declared this a “unique moment in market history”, because the refunding announcement was more important than the meeting of the Federal Reserve, which took place later the same day.
蒙特利爾銀行投行子公司的伊恩·林根稱，這是“金融市場歷史上獨一無二的時刻”，因為再融資公告比美聯儲會議更重要（美聯儲會議在當天晚些時候召開）。
“All that matters at this moment is supply.”
“此時此刻最重要的就是供應?！?/p>
Investors’ interest has been piqued for several reasons.
投資者的興趣被激起有幾個原因。
America’s fiscal deficit is large.
美國的財政赤字很龐大。
It will clock in at almost 6% of GDP for the fiscal year of 2022-23.
在2022至2023財年，赤字將達到GDP的近6%。
It has been pushed upwards by high interest rates, which have increased the cost of servicing America’s national debt.
高利率推高了赤字，因為高利率增加了美國償還國家債務利息的成本。
This has put pressure on bond markets.
這給債券市場帶來了壓力。
In August, at the last refunding announcement, the market appeared surprised by both the increase in total issuance and just how much of it was long-dated.
今年8月，即上一次宣布再融資時，市場似乎對總發行量的增長以及有如此多的長期債券感到驚訝。
In the weeks that followed several auctions “tailed”—trader-speak for the auction resulting in debt being issued at a higher yield than expected.
在接下來的幾周里，幾次國債拍賣出現“尾部”--交易員的行話，意思是拍賣導致債券實際的收益率高于預期收益率。
Some traders think this exacerbated the almighty sell-off in long-dated bonds that has occurred since the summer.
一些交易員認為，這加劇了自夏季以來長期債券的拋售。
Since August 1st the yield on T-bills, the name given to short-dated Treasuries which mature within a year, has not budged at all.
自8月1日以來，T券（一年內到期的短期國債）的收益率沒有絲毫變化。
Yields have spiked, however, for long-dated bonds that mature in ten or 30 years.
然而，10年或30年期的長期債券的收益率已經飆升。
The difference between what it costs to borrow in the short term and the long term is called the “term premium”—and it has returned with a vengeance.
短期借貸成本和長期借貸成本之間的差額被稱為“期限溢價”，這種溢價再次回歸，且數額更大。
In the event, markets were relieved by the Treasury’s announcement.
結果，財政部的公告讓市場松了一口氣。
Planned issuance was increased, but will be concentrated at the short end.
計劃發行的國債量增加了，但大多是短期債券。
Exactly the same value of 20-year Treasuries will be issued in the three months from November as in the three that preceded it, but almost 20% more two-year Treasuries will be sold.
從11月份開始的之后三個月里，20年期美國國債的發行量將與之前三個月完全相同，但兩年期國債的發行量將增加近20%。
Currently, short-dated T-bill issuance is more than one-fifth of total debt issuance.
目前，短期國庫券發行量占總發行量的五分之一以上。
Although that is slightly above historical levels, the issuance committee indicated that it might be willing to go higher still.
盡管這一數字略高于歷史水平，但發行委員會表示，可能愿意進一步提高發行量。
As noted in the minutes of their meeting, committee members “supported meaningful deviation” from the range.
正如會議紀要所指出的那樣，委員會成員“支持有意義地偏離”歷史范圍。
Markets embraced all of this news.
市場欣然接受了所有這些消息。
The yield on the ten-year Treasury fell about ten basis points after the release.
公告發布后，10年期美國國債收益率下跌了約10個基點。
That the Treasury managed to reassure investors this time round is a pleasing outcome for all involved.
財政部這一次成功地安撫了投資者，這對所有人來說都是一個令人高興的結果。
Its officials are sticking to their procedure as far as regular programming is concerned—they will, in three months’ time, publish their next set of issuance plans.
官員們仍然堅持定期發行程序，他們將在三個月后公布下一輪發行計劃。
But with markets so volatile it is becoming ever harder for the Treasury to remain predictable.
但市場如此動蕩，財政部越來越難以保持其可預測性。
